At the moment, the only certainty in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations is … uncertainty. The British prime minister has announced her intention to formally notify the intention to leave the Union at the latest in March 2017, but the likely content of the British opening position will remain unknown for several months to come. We also don’t know when the negotiations will start, since after receiving notification the European Council will have to agree on a mandate to its negotiators. Therefore, all we can do at this stage is set out our hypotheses on the likely shape of the British negotiating position and discuss, in this context, what the Italian interests and reactions might be.

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