Everything Trump does on the international stage moves unpredictably within a triangle of narcissism, cynicism, and incompetence that can at any moment turn into a Bermuda Triangle. Or, backed by the strength of the United States, it can produce a result. How lasting that result may be, no one can predict— but what matters to Trump is being able to proclaim an outcome, not that it endures.

The sequence of meetings in recent days—first between Trump and Putin in Alaska, then with Zelensky and the “willing” Europeans in Washington—leaves us with two indications. One is that by shaping the negotiations in ways favourable to Putin’s demands on key issues, Trump has in effect narrowed the room for manoeuvre of both Zelensky and the Europeans. This has led many observers, perhaps somewhat hastily, and of course the Russian media, to declare Putin the victor. It is however objectively difficult for Trump to ignore the position of the Europeans, and especially Zelensky’s. Under these conditions, it would be reckless today to predict the outcome. Yet certain parameters are now sufficiently clear to contribute, with all due caution, to the formulation of a reference scenario. What remains to be seen is to what extent such a scenario would be acceptable for Europe. It is therefore interesting to examine it considering what appear to be the “red lines” of the Europeans and, of course, Zelensky. One must keep in mind, however, that even if the talk is of “peace,” not merely of truce or ceasefire, nothing eventually agreed upon will have a permanent character. This is why some have invoked, perhaps improperly, the “Korean model.”

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