Working Papers

P. Canofari, G. Marini, G. Piersanti: Expectations and Systemic Risk in EMU Government Bond Spreads

This paper explores the determinants of 10-years sovereign bond spreads over the German Bund benchmark in the Euro Zone from 2000 to 2013, relying on cross-country quarterly data panel analysis. The paper focal point is the role of contagion and euro break-up risks in widening the sovereign bond yield differentials among EU member countries.
Using a novel synthetic index capable of monitoring the sustainability of currency unions, the paper finds that market expectations of a euro’s break up and contagion from Greece were fundamentals drivers of sovereign risk premia in peripheral countries.

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