Negotiations for the completion of the first review of the third bailout programme for Greece are approaching a critical stage, with the Greek government resisting some pension and tax changes, while creditors insist on credible and rigorous implementation. Differences are bridgeable within a couple of months, and a positive outcome would open the door for debt relief. However, there are risks related to the evolving political situation, the lack of ownership by the Syriza government, the still-large fiscal gap to be delivered, potential additional social unrest, the expected impact of fiscal measures on the economy and the outlook for potential growth over the medium term.

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