This paper focuses on biopharmaceuticals, where competition over technological leadership, data, and manufacturing is most intense. Biotech is central to geopolitical competition and must be a priority for Europe's economic security strategy. China targets self-reliance in biotech, linking into its military-civil fusion strategy. The US frames biotech as a national security imperative.

Two scenarios emerge. Under "managed rivalry," current licensing trends between multinationals and Chinese biotechs continue with selective US controls while China expands its global reach through clinical trials and strengthens control over biopharma technology stacks, i.e. the integrated platforms, inputs and capabilities across discovery, manufacturing, and data in a broadening set of modalities. A scenario of "acceleration of chokepoints” will add tougher US outbound investment controls, stricter genomic data restrictions, and heightened licensing scrutiny, while China responds by prioritizing domestic IP and tightening export controls.

Either scenario exposes Europe to vulnerabilities across four chokepoints: capital flows redirecting toward China's innovation ecosystem and US reshoring; AI-enabled drug discovery datasets shifting competitive advantage while US restrictions complicate compliance; China enabling faster trials while Europe lags in implementation; specialized biotech supply chains creating exploitable dependencies.

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