Analysts often describe today’s world as multipolar, with great powers seeking to assert distinct “spheres of influence.” In the United States, this framing recurs in debates over U.S. interests in the world. Yet even as competition with China intensifies, American strategy—as illustrated by the 2025 National Security Strategy —emphasizes a focus on the Western Hemisphere.

This commentary argues that “spheres of influence” are not economically and strategically tenable for the United States and China. Both powers are far from being self-sufficient regional economies and fundamentally depend on the global economy for their sustainability. China’s policymakers seem aware of the need for global scale. It should also be clear to U.S. policymakers that dominating neighboring regions would not ensure U.S. economic stability.

If economic motivations outweigh ideological ones—an uncertain assumption given historical precedents—the United States and China will need to seek a cooperative equilibrium. For the sake of provocative thinking—albeit under a highly unrealistic assumption in the U.S. context—such a cooperative equilibrium would be easier to achieve if both countries expanded their welfare systems, thereby reducing their structural imbalances between savings and investment and strengthening citizens’ demand for internal and external stability.

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