The Brexit referendum is up for grabs, for either side. Probably, two thirds of British voters have not yet made up their minds. The probability of success for the “Leave” campaign supporting the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union is currently significantly underestimated. Based on a recent round of colloquia I attended in Europe and the U.S., I had a clear perception that the Leave camp’s current chances of victory are significantly higher than the standard 33-38% estimate by official polls. My sense is that the Leave supporters are much closer to the 50% threshold, or maybe even higher.

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